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Ekwendeni Hammers vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
1 – 1
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
C. Gumbo 65'
M. Biason 21'
8/15/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers51%
×Draw29%
Chitipa United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.29
Chitipa United
0.69

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 87% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.10
Chitipa United
0.51

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Chitipa United
1.49

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
80%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Chitipa United
71%
Draw or Chitipa United
49%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
24%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
72%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
37%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
14%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
50%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
15%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
72%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.49 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.10 + Chitipa United defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chitipa United attack 0.51 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
51%
level
29%
Chitipa United scores more
20%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Biason
65'
C. Gumbo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ekwendeni Hammers 1–1 Chitipa United

Ekwendeni Hammers and Chitipa United drew 1-1 in Super League on August 15, 2021.

Goals: M. Biason (21'), C. Gumbo (65').

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.