Chitipa United 1–3 Ekwendeni Hammers

Chitipa United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ekwendeni Hammers

11/3/2024

Super League · Round 20Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Chitipa United51%

×Draw27%

Ekwendeni Hammers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chitipa UnitedExpected goals in this matchEkwendeni Hammers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.87

Chitipa United

1.46

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.87

Chitipa United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 73 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Chitipa United

1.33

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.88

allows per match

Chitipa United

0.86

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chitipa United ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chitipa United or draw

78%

Chitipa United or Ekwendeni Hammers

73%

Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers

49%

Winning margin

Chitipa United wins by 2+

26%

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chitipa United 1+ goals

77%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

43%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

18%

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

58%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

22%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

69%

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.88 + Chitipa United defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chitipa United scores more

51%

level

27%

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

22%

Chitipa United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff