Ekwendeni Hammers 1–1 Blue Eagles: Result & Stats

Ekwendeni Hammers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blue Eagles

8/30/2025

Super League · Round 14Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers38%

×Draw31%

Blue Eagles31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ekwendeni HammersExpected goals in this matchBlue Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.92

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.04

Blue Eagles

0.92

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 67 away

1.11

creates per match

0.97

0.87

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.11

Blue Eagles

0.97

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.87

Blue Eagles

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Blue Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw

69%

Ekwendeni Hammers or Blue Eagles

69%

Draw or Blue Eagles

62%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

15%

Blue Eagles wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

65%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

28%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

9%

Blue Eagles 1+ goals

60%

Blue Eagles 2+ goals

23%

Blue Eagles 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

55%

Blue Eagles (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

38%

level

31%

Blue Eagles scores more

31%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff