Ekwendeni Hammers 2–0 Be Forward Wanderers

Ekwendeni Hammers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Be Forward Wanderers

5/25/2024

Super League · Round 6Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers29%

×Draw31%

Be Forward Wanderers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ekwendeni HammersExpected goals in this matchBe Forward Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.06

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.86

Be Forward Wanderers

1.06

Be Forward Wanderers creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 82 away

1.11

creates per match

1.26

0.87

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.11

Be Forward Wanderers

1.26

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.87

Be Forward Wanderers

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw

60%

Ekwendeni Hammers or Be Forward Wanderers

69%

Draw or Be Forward Wanderers

71%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

10%

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

58%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

21%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

6%

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

65%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

29%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

42%

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

29%

level

31%

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

40%

Be Forward Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff