Ekwendeni Hammers 2–1 Baka City: Result & Stats

Ekwendeni Hammers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baka City

4/13/2024

Super League · Round 1Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers74%

×Draw17%

Baka City9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ekwendeni HammersExpected goals in this matchBaka City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.67

Ekwendeni Hammers

2.29

Baka City

0.67

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 242% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.11

creates per match

0.47

0.87

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.11

Baka City

0.47

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.87

Baka City

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Baka City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Baka City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw

91%

Ekwendeni Hammers or Baka City

83%

Draw or Baka City

26%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

50%

Baka City wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

90%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

66%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

40%

Baka City 1+ goals

49%

Baka City 2+ goals

15%

Baka City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

89%

Baka City (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Baka City away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Baka City defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.29

Baka City attack 0.47 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

74%

level

17%

Baka City scores more

9%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff