Ekranas 1–2 Trakai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Ekranas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Trakai II

10/14/2023

1 Lyga · Round 26Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ekranas37%

×Draw24%

Trakai II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkranasExpected goals in this matchTrakai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.58

Ekranas

1.55

Trakai II

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

1.33

creates per match

1.52

1.64

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Ekranas

1.33

Trakai II

1.52

allows per match

Ekranas

1.64

Trakai II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekranas+0.00on par

Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekranas ↓

Trakai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ekranas or draw

61%

Ekranas or Trakai II

76%

Draw or Trakai II

63%

Winning margin

Ekranas wins by 2+

18%

Trakai II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ekranas 1+ goals

79%

Ekranas 2+ goals

46%

Ekranas 3+ goals

20%

Trakai II 1+ goals

79%

Trakai II 2+ goals

47%

Trakai II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ekranas (draw refunded)

49%

Trakai II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekranas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekranas attack 1.33 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Ekranas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ekranas scores more

37%

level

24%

Trakai II scores more

39%

Trakai II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff