Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ekranas vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Ekranas
Ekranas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Elivelto 17'
M. Kuklys 52'
S. Nyuiadzi 36'
L. Pilibaitis 13'
8/16/2014A LygaA Lyga · Round 23Aukštaitijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ekranas15%
×Draw24%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekranas
0.71
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.70

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 139% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 144 away

creates per match

Ekranas
0.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00

allows per match

Ekranas
1.40
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.83

finishing

Ekranas+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekranas ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ekranas or draw
39%
Ekranas or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
76%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
85%

Winning margin

Ekranas wins by 2+
4%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ekranas 1+ goals
51%
Ekranas 2+ goals
16%
Ekranas 3+ goals
4%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
82%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
51%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ekranas (draw refunded)
20%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekranas at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekranas attack 0.60 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.00 + Ekranas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ekranas scores more
15%
level
24%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
61%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
L. Pilibaitis
17'
Elivelto
36'
S. Nyuiadzi
52'
M. Kuklys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekranas vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Ekranas 3-1 in A Lyga on August 16, 2014.

Goals: L. Pilibaitis (13'), Elivelto (17'), S. Nyuiadzi (36'), M. Kuklys (52').

The match was played at Aukštaitijos stadionas in Panevėžys.