Ekranas 2–0 Dainava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Ekranas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dainava

M. Slivka 62'

A. Karvatskyi 39'

4/1/2022

1 Lyga · Round 3Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ekranas29%

×Draw25%

Dainava46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkranasExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.60

Ekranas

1.23

Dainava

1.60

Dainava creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

1.32

creates per match

1.53

1.68

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ekranas

1.32

Dainava

1.53

allows per match

Ekranas

1.68

Dainava

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekranas+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekranas ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ekranas or draw

54%

Ekranas or Dainava

75%

Draw or Dainava

71%

Winning margin

Ekranas wins by 2+

12%

Dainava wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ekranas 1+ goals

71%

Ekranas 2+ goals

35%

Ekranas 3+ goals

13%

Dainava 1+ goals

80%

Dainava 2+ goals

47%

Dainava 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ekranas (draw refunded)

39%

Dainava (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekranas at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekranas attack 1.32 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dainava attack 1.53 + Ekranas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ekranas scores more

29%

level

25%

Dainava scores more

46%

Dainava at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

K. AmemiyaMissed penalty

39'

A. Karvatskyi

62'

M. Slivka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff