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Ekibastuz vs Yassy Turkistan — 1. Division 2019

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
FT
3 – 0
Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
9/5/20241. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ekibastuz57%
×Draw20%
Yassy Turkistan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekibastuz
2.31
Yassy Turkistan
1.42

Ekibastuz creates 63% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 52 away

creates per match

Ekibastuz
1.75
Yassy Turkistan
1.35

allows per match

Ekibastuz
1.49
Yassy Turkistan
2.87

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par
Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

Yassy Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw
77%
Ekibastuz or Yassy Turkistan
80%
Draw or Yassy Turkistan
43%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+
36%
Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals
90%
Ekibastuz 2+ goals
67%
Ekibastuz 3+ goals
40%
Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
76%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
41%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)
71%
Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.49 · 91 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.75 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.31

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + Ekibastuz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ekibastuz scores more
57%
level
20%
Yassy Turkistan scores more
23%

Ekibastuz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ekibastuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekibastuz vs Yassy Turkistan

Ekibastuz beat Yassy Turkistan 3-0 in 1. Division on September 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Ėkibastyz.