Ekibastuz 0–2 Shakhter Karagandy: Result & Stats

1. Division·2026

Ekibastuz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shakhter Karagandy

R. Nurmugamet 61'

A. Ulshin 38'

Date: Jul 16, 2026, 12:00 PM
Tournament: 1. Division · Regular Season - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ekibastuz30%

×Draw22%

Shakhter Karagandy47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkibastuzExpected goals in this matchShakhter Karagandy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.90

Ekibastuz

1.48

Shakhter Karagandy

1.90

Shakhter Karagandy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.75

creates per match

2.30

1.50

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ekibastuz

1.75

Shakhter Karagandy

2.30

allows per match

Ekibastuz

1.50

Shakhter Karagandy

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par

Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw

53%

Ekibastuz or Shakhter Karagandy

78%

Draw or Shakhter Karagandy

70%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+

14%

Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals

77%

Ekibastuz 2+ goals

43%

Ekibastuz 3+ goals

19%

Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals

85%

Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals

56%

Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)

39%

Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.75 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shakhter Karagandy attack 2.30 + Ekibastuz defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ekibastuz scores more

30%

level

22%

Shakhter Karagandy scores more

47%

Shakhter Karagandy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shakhter Karagandy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Ulshin

61'

R. Nurmugamet

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff