Ekibastuz 3–2 Kyzyl-Zhar II: Result & Stats

Ekibastuz

FT

3 – 2

Kyzyl-Zhar II

6/19/2021

1. Division · Round 9Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ekibastuz71%

×Draw16%

Kyzyl-Zhar II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkibastuzExpected goals in this matchKyzyl-Zhar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

1.11

Ekibastuz

2.74

Kyzyl-Zhar II

1.11

Ekibastuz creates 147% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

0.73

1.49

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Ekibastuz

1.75

Kyzyl-Zhar II

0.73

allows per match

Ekibastuz

1.49

Kyzyl-Zhar II

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par

Kyzyl-Zhar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

Kyzyl-Zhar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw

87%

Ekibastuz or Kyzyl-Zhar II

84%

Draw or Kyzyl-Zhar II

29%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+

50%

Kyzyl-Zhar II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals

93%

Ekibastuz 2+ goals

75%

Ekibastuz 3+ goals

51%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 1+ goals

67%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 2+ goals

30%

Kyzyl-Zhar II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)

84%

Kyzyl-Zhar II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.49 · 91 matches

Kyzyl-Zhar II away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.75 + Kyzyl-Zhar II defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.74

Kyzyl-Zhar II attack 0.73 + Ekibastuz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ekibastuz scores more

71%

level

16%

Kyzyl-Zhar II scores more

13%

Ekibastuz at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ekibastuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff