Ekibastuz 2–2 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats

Ekibastuz

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Jas Qyran

4/28/2023

1. Division · Round 4Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ekibastuz54%

×Draw21%

Jas Qyran25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkibastuzExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.35

Ekibastuz

2.09

Jas Qyran

1.35

Ekibastuz creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 14 away

1.75

creates per match

1.21

1.49

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Ekibastuz

1.75

Jas Qyran

1.21

allows per match

Ekibastuz

1.49

Jas Qyran

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

Jas Qyran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw

75%

Ekibastuz or Jas Qyran

79%

Draw or Jas Qyran

46%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+

32%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals

88%

Ekibastuz 2+ goals

62%

Ekibastuz 3+ goals

34%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

74%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

39%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)

69%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.49 · 91 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.75 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.09

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Ekibastuz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ekibastuz scores more

54%

level

21%

Jas Qyran scores more

25%

Ekibastuz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ekibastuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff