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Ekibastuz vs FK Aksu — 1. Division 2019

Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
FT
2 – 2
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
7/19/20211. Division1. Division · Round 13Stadion Shakhter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ekibastuz29%
×Draw23%
FK Aksu48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekibastuz
1.38
FK Aksu
1.83

FK Aksu creates 33% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ekibastuz
1.75
FK Aksu
2.18

allows per match

Ekibastuz
1.49
FK Aksu
1.00

finishing

Ekibastuz+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekibastuz ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ekibastuz or draw
52%
Ekibastuz or FK Aksu
77%
Draw or FK Aksu
71%

Winning margin

Ekibastuz wins by 2+
13%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ekibastuz 1+ goals
75%
Ekibastuz 2+ goals
40%
Ekibastuz 3+ goals
16%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
84%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
54%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ekibastuz (draw refunded)
38%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekibastuz at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.49 · 91 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekibastuz attack 1.75 + FK Aksu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

FK Aksu attack 2.18 + Ekibastuz defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ekibastuz scores more
29%
level
23%
FK Aksu scores more
48%

FK Aksu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekibastuz vs FK Aksu

Ekibastuz and FK Aksu drew 2-2 in 1. Division on July 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter in Ėkibastyz.