Ekhaya 4–1 Songwe Border United: Result & Stats

Ekhaya

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Songwe Border United

10/4/2025

Super League · Round 22Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ekhaya81%

×Draw15%

Songwe Border United4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkhayaExpected goals in this matchSongwe Border United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.33

Ekhaya

2.23

Songwe Border United

0.33

Ekhaya creates 576% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

1.53

creates per match

0.13

0.53

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Ekhaya

1.53

Songwe Border United

0.13

allows per match

Ekhaya

0.53

Songwe Border United

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Songwe Border United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw

96%

Ekhaya or Songwe Border United

85%

Draw or Songwe Border United

19%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+

56%

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals

89%

Ekhaya 2+ goals

65%

Ekhaya 3+ goals

38%

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

28%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

4%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)

95%

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.23

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Ekhaya scores more

81%

level

15%

Songwe Border United scores more

4%

Ekhaya at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff