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Ekhaya vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Ekhaya
Ekhaya
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
7/20/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ekhaya57%
×Draw26%
Moyale Barracks17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekhaya
1.52
Moyale Barracks
0.70

Ekhaya creates 117% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ekhaya
1.53
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Ekhaya
0.53
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw
83%
Ekhaya or Moyale Barracks
74%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
43%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+
30%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals
78%
Ekhaya 2+ goals
45%
Ekhaya 3+ goals
20%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
50%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
16%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)
77%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ekhaya scores more
57%
level
26%
Moyale Barracks scores more
17%

Ekhaya at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekhaya vs Moyale Barracks

Ekhaya beat Moyale Barracks 3-0 in Super League on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.