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Ekhaya vs Mighty Tigers — Super League 2026

Ekhaya
Ekhaya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
4/5/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ekhaya58%
×Draw28%
Mighty Tigers14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekhaya
1.39
Mighty Tigers
0.53

Ekhaya creates 162% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ekhaya
1.53
Mighty Tigers
0.53

allows per match

Ekhaya
0.53
Mighty Tigers
1.24

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par
Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Mighty Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw
86%
Ekhaya or Mighty Tigers
72%
Draw or Mighty Tigers
42%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+
29%
Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals
75%
Ekhaya 2+ goals
40%
Ekhaya 3+ goals
16%
Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
41%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
10%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)
80%
Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Mighty Tigers away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Mighty Tigers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mighty Tigers attack 0.53 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ekhaya scores more
58%
level
28%
Mighty Tigers scores more
14%

Ekhaya at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ekhaya 2–0 Mighty Tigers

Ekhaya beat Mighty Tigers 2-0 in Super League on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.