Ekhaya 1–1 Dedza Dynamos: Result & Stats

Ekhaya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dedza Dynamos

11/1/2025

Super League · Round 19Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ekhaya60%

×Draw25%

Dedza Dynamos15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EkhayaExpected goals in this matchDedza Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.66

Ekhaya

1.61

Dedza Dynamos

0.66

Ekhaya creates 144% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 65 away

1.53

creates per match

0.78

0.53

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ekhaya

1.53

Dedza Dynamos

0.78

allows per match

Ekhaya

0.53

Dedza Dynamos

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par

Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Dedza Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw

85%

Ekhaya or Dedza Dynamos

75%

Draw or Dedza Dynamos

40%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+

33%

Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals

80%

Ekhaya 2+ goals

48%

Ekhaya 3+ goals

22%

Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals

48%

Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals

14%

Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)

80%

Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ekhaya scores more

60%

level

25%

Dedza Dynamos scores more

15%

Ekhaya at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff