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Ejea vs Utrillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ejea
Ejea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Utrillas
Utrillas
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ejea58%
×Draw24%
Utrillas18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ejea
1.74
Utrillas
0.86

Ejea creates 102% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ejea
1.84
Utrillas
0.97

allows per match

Ejea
0.75
Utrillas
1.64

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par
Utrillas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Utrillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ejea or draw
82%
Ejea or Utrillas
76%
Draw or Utrillas
42%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+
33%
Utrillas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals
82%
Ejea 2+ goals
52%
Ejea 3+ goals
25%
Utrillas 1+ goals
58%
Utrillas 2+ goals
21%
Utrillas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)
76%
Utrillas (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Utrillas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 1.84 + Utrillas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Utrillas attack 0.97 + Ejea defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ejea scores more
58%
level
24%
Utrillas scores more
18%

Ejea at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ejea 1 – 0 Utrillas

Ejea beat Utrillas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Luchán in Ejea de los Caballeros.