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Ejea vs Izarra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ejea
Ejea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Izarra
Izarra
2/14/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ejea48%
×Draw29%
Izarra23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ejea
1.29
Izarra
0.79

Ejea creates 63% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ejea
0.92
Izarra
0.74

allows per match

Ejea
0.85
Izarra
1.67

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par
Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Izarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ejea or draw
77%
Ejea or Izarra
71%
Draw or Izarra
52%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+
22%
Izarra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals
72%
Ejea 2+ goals
37%
Ejea 3+ goals
14%
Izarra 1+ goals
55%
Izarra 2+ goals
19%
Izarra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)
68%
Izarra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Izarra away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 0.92 + Izarra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Izarra attack 0.74 + Ejea defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ejea scores more
48%
level
29%
Izarra scores more
23%

Ejea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ejea vs Izarra

Ejea and Izarra drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Luchán in Ejea de los Caballeros.