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Ejea vs Huesca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ejea
Ejea
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Huesca II
Huesca II
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 33Ciudad Deportiva Ejea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ejea48%
×Draw26%
Huesca II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ejea
1.50
Huesca II
1.04

Ejea creates 44% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 80 away

creates per match

Ejea
1.84
Huesca II
1.32

allows per match

Ejea
0.75
Huesca II
1.16

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par
Huesca II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Huesca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ejea or draw
74%
Ejea or Huesca II
74%
Draw or Huesca II
52%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+
24%
Huesca II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals
78%
Ejea 2+ goals
44%
Ejea 3+ goals
19%
Huesca II 1+ goals
65%
Huesca II 2+ goals
28%
Huesca II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)
65%
Huesca II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Huesca II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 1.84 + Huesca II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Huesca II attack 1.32 + Ejea defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ejea scores more
48%
level
26%
Huesca II scores more
26%

Ejea at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Ejea 3–3 Huesca II

Ejea and Huesca II drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ejea in Ejea de los Caballeros.