Ejea 1–1 Haro Deportivo: Result & Stats

Ejea

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Haro Deportivo

10/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ejea41%

×Draw31%

Haro Deportivo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EjeaExpected goals in this matchHaro Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.87

Ejea

1.12

Haro Deportivo

0.87

Ejea creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

0.92

creates per match

0.89

0.85

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ejea

0.92

Haro Deportivo

0.89

allows per match

Ejea

0.85

Haro Deportivo

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Haro Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ejea or draw

72%

Ejea or Haro Deportivo

69%

Draw or Haro Deportivo

59%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+

17%

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals

67%

Ejea 2+ goals

31%

Ejea 3+ goals

10%

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

58%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

22%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)

59%

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 0.92 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Ejea defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ejea scores more

41%

level

31%

Haro Deportivo scores more

28%

Ejea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff