Ejea 6–1 Cariñena: Result & Stats

Ejea

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 1

Cariñena

10/29/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 8Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ejea61%

×Draw22%

Cariñena17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EjeaExpected goals in this matchCariñena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.83

Ejea

1.83

Cariñena

0.83

Ejea creates 120% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 82 away

1.84

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Ejea

1.84

Cariñena

0.91

allows per match

Ejea

0.75

Cariñena

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par

Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Cariñena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ejea or draw

83%

Ejea or Cariñena

78%

Draw or Cariñena

39%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+

36%

Cariñena wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals

84%

Ejea 2+ goals

54%

Ejea 3+ goals

28%

Cariñena 1+ goals

56%

Cariñena 2+ goals

20%

Cariñena 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)

79%

Cariñena (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 1.84 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Ejea defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ejea scores more

61%

level

22%

Cariñena scores more

17%

Ejea at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff