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HIFK Helsinki vs KPV Kokkola — Ykkönen 2018

HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
6/13/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 5Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

HIFK Helsinki49%
×Draw26%
KPV Kokkola26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HIFK Helsinki
1.54
KPV Kokkola
1.05

HIFK Helsinki creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki
1.63
KPV Kokkola
1.15

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki
0.96
KPV Kokkola
1.46

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw
74%
HIFK Helsinki or KPV Kokkola
74%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
51%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
25%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
79%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
45%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
20%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
65%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
28%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
65%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.63 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

KPV Kokkola attack 1.15 + HIFK Helsinki defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more
49%
level
26%
KPV Kokkola scores more
26%

HIFK Helsinki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: HIFK Helsinki 2–0 KPV Kokkola

HIFK Helsinki beat KPV Kokkola 2-0 in Ykkönen on June 13, 2018.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).