Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eisbachtal vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eisbachtal
Eisbachtal
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
10/19/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 13Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eisbachtal56%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Herxheim25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eisbachtal
2.44
Viktoria Herxheim
1.58

Eisbachtal creates 54% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eisbachtal
1.88
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

Eisbachtal
2.05
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

Eisbachtal+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eisbachtal ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Eisbachtal or draw
75%
Eisbachtal or Viktoria Herxheim
81%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
44%

Winning margin

Eisbachtal wins by 2+
36%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eisbachtal 1+ goals
91%
Eisbachtal 2+ goals
70%
Eisbachtal 3+ goals
43%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
47%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eisbachtal (draw refunded)
70%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eisbachtal at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eisbachtal attack 1.88 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + Eisbachtal defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eisbachtal scores more
56%
level
19%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
25%

Eisbachtal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eisbachtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Eisbachtal 0–3 Viktoria Herxheim

Viktoria Herxheim beat Eisbachtal 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen in Nentershausen.