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Eisbachtal vs Sv Morlautern — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Eisbachtal
Eisbachtal
FT
3 – 4
Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
4/22/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 7Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eisbachtal20%
×Draw17%
Sv Morlautern64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eisbachtal
1.67
Sv Morlautern
3.00

Sv Morlautern creates 80% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Eisbachtal
2.00
Sv Morlautern
2.83

allows per match

Eisbachtal
3.17
Sv Morlautern
1.33

finishing

Eisbachtal+0.00on par
Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eisbachtal ↓

Sv Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Eisbachtal or draw
36%
Eisbachtal or Sv Morlautern
83%
Draw or Sv Morlautern
80%

Winning margin

Eisbachtal wins by 2+
9%
Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Eisbachtal 1+ goals
81%
Eisbachtal 2+ goals
50%
Eisbachtal 3+ goals
23%
Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
95%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
79%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Eisbachtal (draw refunded)
24%
Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eisbachtal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eisbachtal attack 2.00 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + Eisbachtal defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Eisbachtal scores more
20%
level
17%
Sv Morlautern scores more
64%

Sv Morlautern at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Eisbachtal 3–4 Sv Morlautern

Sv Morlautern beat Eisbachtal 4-3 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen in Nentershausen.