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Eisbachtal vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Eisbachtal
Eisbachtal
FT
2 – 1
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
5/6/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 9Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eisbachtal30%
×Draw19%
Jägersburg51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eisbachtal
2.00
Jägersburg
2.58

Jägersburg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Eisbachtal
2.00
Jägersburg
2.00

allows per match

Eisbachtal
3.17
Jägersburg
2.00

finishing

Eisbachtal+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eisbachtal ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Eisbachtal or draw
49%
Eisbachtal or Jägersburg
81%
Draw or Jägersburg
70%

Winning margin

Eisbachtal wins by 2+
16%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Eisbachtal 1+ goals
86%
Eisbachtal 2+ goals
59%
Eisbachtal 3+ goals
32%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
92%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
72%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Eisbachtal (draw refunded)
38%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eisbachtal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eisbachtal attack 2.00 + Jägersburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jägersburg attack 2.00 + Eisbachtal defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eisbachtal scores more
30%
level
19%
Jägersburg scores more
51%

Jägersburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jägersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eisbachtal vs Jägersburg

Eisbachtal beat Jägersburg 2-1 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen in Nentershausen.