Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eisbachtal vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eisbachtal
Eisbachtal
CANC
14:30
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2/20/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Eisbachtal47%
×Draw22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eisbachtal
2.01
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.64

Eisbachtal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

creates per match

Eisbachtal
1.88
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

Eisbachtal
2.05
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

Eisbachtal+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eisbachtal ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eisbachtal or draw
68%
Eisbachtal or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
78%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
53%

Winning margin

Eisbachtal wins by 2+
26%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eisbachtal 1+ goals
87%
Eisbachtal 2+ goals
59%
Eisbachtal 3+ goals
32%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
81%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
49%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eisbachtal (draw refunded)
59%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eisbachtal at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eisbachtal attack 1.88 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.01

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Eisbachtal defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eisbachtal scores more
47%
level
22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
32%

Eisbachtal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eisbachtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eisbachtal host Alemannia Waldalgesheim

February 20, 2021: Eisbachtal take on Alemannia Waldalgesheim in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eisbachtal host Alemannia Waldalgesheim at Eisbachtalstadion Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.