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Eintracht Trier vs Sv Morlautern — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
8/16/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 5Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eintracht Trier76%
×Draw15%
Sv Morlautern9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Trier
2.64
Sv Morlautern
0.82

Eintracht Trier creates 222% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 46 away

creates per match

Eintracht Trier
3.00
Sv Morlautern
1.11

allows per match

Eintracht Trier
0.53
Sv Morlautern
2.28

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par
Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

Sv Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw
91%
Eintracht Trier or Sv Morlautern
85%
Draw or Sv Morlautern
24%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
54%
Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
93%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
74%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
48%
Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
56%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
20%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
89%
Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.64

Sv Morlautern attack 1.11 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more
76%
level
15%
Sv Morlautern scores more
9%

Eintracht Trier at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Eintracht Trier 4–1 Sv Morlautern

Eintracht Trier beat Sv Morlautern 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 16, 2023.

The match was played at Moselstadion in Trier.