Eintracht Trier 1–2 Salmrohr: Result & Stats

Eintracht Trier

FT

1 – 2

Salmrohr

10/30/2021

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Eintracht Trier72%

×Draw16%

Salmrohr12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht TrierExpected goals in this matchSalmrohr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

0.95

Eintracht Trier

2.59

Salmrohr

0.95

Eintracht Trier creates 173% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

3.00

creates per match

1.38

0.53

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Eintracht Trier

3.00

Salmrohr

1.38

allows per match

Eintracht Trier

0.53

Salmrohr

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Salmrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

Salmrohr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw

88%

Eintracht Trier or Salmrohr

84%

Draw or Salmrohr

28%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+

50%

Salmrohr wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals

92%

Eintracht Trier 2+ goals

73%

Eintracht Trier 3+ goals

47%

Salmrohr 1+ goals

61%

Salmrohr 2+ goals

25%

Salmrohr 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)

86%

Salmrohr (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Salmrohr away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Salmrohr defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.59

Salmrohr attack 1.38 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more

72%

level

16%

Salmrohr scores more

12%

Eintracht Trier at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff