Eintracht Trier vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 24+ matches
Eintracht Trier76%
Mülheim-Kärlich9%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Eintracht Trier creates 259% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 24 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Eintracht Trier ↓
Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches
Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.44
Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 76%?"
Eintracht Trier at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 76% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Eintracht Trier
Kaiserslautern II
Hassia Bingen
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
TuS Koblenz
Gonsenheim
FV Engers 07Mülheim-Kärlich
Karbach
Salmrohr
Eisbachtal
Emmelshausen
Wormatia Worms
Dudenhofen
Diefflen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Jägersburg
Elversberg II
Röchling Völklingen
Pfeddersheim
Hertha Wiesbach
Speyer
Mechtersheim
EppelbornIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Eintracht Trier host Mülheim-Kärlich on Tuesday, 8 December 2020 at 18:30. The match is part of the Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020/2021 season.
Eintracht Trier face Mülheim-Kärlich (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Eintracht Trier hosting Mülheim-Kärlich. Match starts December 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Eintracht Trier host Mülheim-Kärlich at Moselstadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.