Eintracht Trier U19 1–1 Viktoria Köln U19

Eintracht Trier U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Köln U19

5/7/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 1Nebenplatz Moselstadion Rasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Eintracht Trier U1923%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Köln U1958%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Trier U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.50

Eintracht Trier U19

1.54

Viktoria Köln U19

2.50

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 70 away

1.08

creates per match

1.43

3.58

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Eintracht Trier U19

1.08

Viktoria Köln U19

1.43

allows per match

Eintracht Trier U19

3.58

Viktoria Köln U19

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Trier U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier U19 or draw

42%

Eintracht Trier U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

81%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

77%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier U19 wins by 2+

10%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier U19 1+ goals

79%

Eintracht Trier U19 2+ goals

45%

Eintracht Trier U19 3+ goals

20%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

92%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

71%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier U19 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.58 · 12 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier U19 attack 1.08 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.54

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.43 + Eintracht Trier U19 defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eintracht Trier U19 scores more

23%

level

19%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

58%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff