Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2–1 1960 Hanau

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

1960 Hanau

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 16Kunstrasenplatz 1 Stadtallendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf52%

×Draw21%

1960 Hanau28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht StadtallendorfExpected goals in this match1960 Hanau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.56

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

2.18

1960 Hanau

1.56

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

2.13

creates per match

1.87

1.24

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

2.13

1960 Hanau

1.87

allows per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf

1.24

1960 Hanau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

1960 Hanau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Stadtallendorf ↓

1960 Hanau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or draw

72%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or 1960 Hanau

79%

Draw or 1960 Hanau

48%

Winning margin

Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+

31%

1960 Hanau wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals

64%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals

37%

1960 Hanau 1+ goals

79%

1960 Hanau 2+ goals

46%

1960 Hanau 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)

65%

1960 Hanau (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

1960 Hanau away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 2.13 + 1960 Hanau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.18

1960 Hanau attack 1.87 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more

52%

level

21%

1960 Hanau scores more

28%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff