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Eintracht Rheine vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
FT
0 – 1
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
7/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eintracht Rheine20%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Lotte59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Rheine
1.05
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.98

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine
0.60
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.75

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine
2.20
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.50

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw
41%
Eintracht Rheine or Sportfreunde Lotte
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
80%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
7%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
65%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
28%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
9%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
86%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
59%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
25%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 0.60 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.75 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more
20%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
59%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Rheine vs Sportfreunde Lotte

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Eintracht Rheine 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.