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Eintracht Rheine vs Kaan-Marienborn — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
CANC
14:00
Kaan-Marienborn
Kaan-Marienborn
3/14/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 24OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Rheine25%
×Draw22%
Kaan-Marienborn53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Rheine
1.28
Kaan-Marienborn
1.96

Kaan-Marienborn creates 53% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.44
Kaan-Marienborn
2.59

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.34
Kaan-Marienborn
1.12

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par
Kaan-Marienborn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Kaan-Marienborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw
47%
Eintracht Rheine or Kaan-Marienborn
78%
Draw or Kaan-Marienborn
75%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
10%
Kaan-Marienborn wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
72%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
37%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
14%
Kaan-Marienborn 1+ goals
86%
Kaan-Marienborn 2+ goals
58%
Kaan-Marienborn 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
32%
Kaan-Marienborn (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Kaan-Marienborn away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + Kaan-Marienborn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kaan-Marienborn attack 2.59 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more
25%
level
22%
Kaan-Marienborn scores more
53%

Kaan-Marienborn at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kaan-Marienborn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eintracht Rheine host Kaan-Marienborn

March 14, 2021: Eintracht Rheine take on Kaan-Marienborn in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eintracht Rheine host Kaan-Marienborn at OBI-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.