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Eintracht Rheine vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
4/13/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 30OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Eintracht Rheine62%
×Draw19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Rheine
2.44
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.31

Eintracht Rheine creates 86% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.44
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.34
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw
81%
Eintracht Rheine or Concordia Wiemelhausen
81%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
38%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
40%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
91%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
70%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
43%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
73%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
38%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
76%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.44

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more
62%
level
19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
19%

Eintracht Rheine at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Eintracht Rheine 1–0 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Eintracht Rheine beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at OBI-Arena in Rheine.