Eintracht Rheine 2–0 Bövinghausen: Result & Stats

Eintracht Rheine

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bövinghausen

10/1/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Eintracht Rheine52%

×Draw22%

Bövinghausen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht RheineExpected goals in this matchBövinghausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.32

Eintracht Rheine

1.97

Bövinghausen

1.32

Eintracht Rheine creates 49% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 47 away

1.44

creates per match

1.30

1.34

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine

1.44

Bövinghausen

1.30

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine

1.34

Bövinghausen

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Bövinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Bövinghausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw

74%

Eintracht Rheine or Bövinghausen

78%

Draw or Bövinghausen

48%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+

30%

Bövinghausen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals

58%

Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals

31%

Bövinghausen 1+ goals

73%

Bövinghausen 2+ goals

38%

Bövinghausen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)

67%

Bövinghausen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Bövinghausen away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.51 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + Bövinghausen defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.97

Bövinghausen attack 1.30 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more

52%

level

22%

Bövinghausen scores more

26%

Eintracht Rheine at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff