Eintracht Norderstedt 2–0 Süderelbe: Result & Stats

Eintracht Norderstedt

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Süderelbe

M. Brendel 65'

E. Ampofo 45'

1/16/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Eintracht Norderstedt84%

×Draw10%

Süderelbe6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht NorderstedtExpected goals in this matchSüderelbe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.83

1.05

Eintracht Norderstedt

3.83

Süderelbe

1.05

Eintracht Norderstedt creates 265% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

3.40

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

4.25

creates per match

Eintracht Norderstedt

3.40

Süderelbe

1.00

allows per match

Eintracht Norderstedt

1.10

Süderelbe

4.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Norderstedt+0.00on par

Süderelbe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Norderstedt ↓

Süderelbe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Eintracht Norderstedt or draw

94%

Eintracht Norderstedt or Süderelbe

90%

Draw or Süderelbe

16%

Winning margin

Eintracht Norderstedt wins by 2+

68%

Süderelbe wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Eintracht Norderstedt 1+ goals

98%

Eintracht Norderstedt 2+ goals

88%

Eintracht Norderstedt 3+ goals

71%

Süderelbe 1+ goals

65%

Süderelbe 2+ goals

28%

Süderelbe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Norderstedt (draw refunded)

93%

Süderelbe (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Norderstedt at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Süderelbe away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Norderstedt attack 3.40 + Süderelbe defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.83

Süderelbe attack 1.00 + Eintracht Norderstedt defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Eintracht Norderstedt scores more

84%

level

10%

Süderelbe scores more

6%

Eintracht Norderstedt at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Eintracht Norderstedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

E. Ampofo

65'

M. Brendel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff