Eintracht Norderstedt 1–1 Havelse: Result & Stats

Eintracht Norderstedt

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Havelse

7/19/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Eintracht Norderstedt54%

×Draw18%

Havelse28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht NorderstedtExpected goals in this matchHavelse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

2.05

Eintracht Norderstedt

2.85

Havelse

2.05

Eintracht Norderstedt creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

3.40

creates per match

3.00

1.10

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Eintracht Norderstedt

3.40

Havelse

3.00

allows per match

Eintracht Norderstedt

1.10

Havelse

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Norderstedt+0.00on par

Havelse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Norderstedt ↓

Havelse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Eintracht Norderstedt or draw

72%

Eintracht Norderstedt or Havelse

82%

Draw or Havelse

46%

Winning margin

Eintracht Norderstedt wins by 2+

35%

Havelse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Eintracht Norderstedt 1+ goals

94%

Eintracht Norderstedt 2+ goals

77%

Eintracht Norderstedt 3+ goals

53%

Havelse 1+ goals

87%

Havelse 2+ goals

61%

Havelse 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Norderstedt (draw refunded)

66%

Havelse (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Norderstedt at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Havelse away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Norderstedt attack 3.40 + Havelse defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.85

Havelse attack 3.00 + Eintracht Norderstedt defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eintracht Norderstedt scores more

54%

level

18%

Havelse scores more

28%

Eintracht Norderstedt at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eintracht Norderstedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Eintracht

Havelse

Manager: Elard Ostermann

Manager: Samir Ferchichi