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Eintracht Norderstedt vs FC St. Pauli — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eintracht Norderstedt
Eintracht Norderstedt
CANC
12:00
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
6/27/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Eintracht Norderstedt58%
×Draw19%
FC St. Pauli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Norderstedt
2.54
FC St. Pauli
1.60

Eintracht Norderstedt creates 59% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Eintracht Norderstedt
3.40
FC St. Pauli
2.11

allows per match

Eintracht Norderstedt
1.10
FC St. Pauli
1.67

finishing

Eintracht Norderstedt+0.00on par
FC St. Pauli+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Norderstedt ↓

FC St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Eintracht Norderstedt or draw
76%
Eintracht Norderstedt or FC St. Pauli
81%
Draw or FC St. Pauli
42%

Winning margin

Eintracht Norderstedt wins by 2+
37%
FC St. Pauli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eintracht Norderstedt 1+ goals
92%
Eintracht Norderstedt 2+ goals
72%
Eintracht Norderstedt 3+ goals
46%
FC St. Pauli 1+ goals
80%
FC St. Pauli 2+ goals
47%
FC St. Pauli 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Norderstedt (draw refunded)
71%
FC St. Pauli (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Norderstedt at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

FC St. Pauli away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Norderstedt attack 3.40 + FC St. Pauli defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

FC St. Pauli attack 2.11 + Eintracht Norderstedt defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eintracht Norderstedt scores more
58%
level
19%
FC St. Pauli scores more
24%

Eintracht Norderstedt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eintracht Norderstedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Norderstedt vs FC St. Pauli — Match Preview

Eintracht Norderstedt face FC St. Pauli on June 27, 2021 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eintracht Norderstedt host FC St. Pauli at Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.