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Eintracht Münchberg vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cham
Cham
L. Kohler 88'
11/9/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 20FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg24%
×Draw23%
Cham52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.16
Cham
1.81

Cham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Cham
1.49

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
48%
Eintracht Münchberg or Cham
77%
Draw or Cham
76%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
10%
Cham wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
69%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
32%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
11%
Cham 1+ goals
84%
Cham 2+ goals
54%
Cham 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
32%
Cham (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cham attack 1.44 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
24%
level
23%
Cham scores more
52%

Cham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
L. Kohler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Münchberg vs Cham

Eintracht Münchberg beat Cham 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 9, 2024.

Goals: L. Kohler (88').

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.