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Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Rostocker FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
FT
7 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
2/11/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 16Kunstrasenplatz Am Rosenhag KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf64%
×Draw18%
Rostocker FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.64
Rostocker FC
1.38

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 91% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
Rostocker FC
1.40

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
Rostocker FC
3.25

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

Rostocker FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
81%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or Rostocker FC
82%
Draw or Rostocker FC
36%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
43%
Rostocker FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
93%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
74%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
48%
Rostocker FC 1+ goals
75%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
40%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
77%
Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.64

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
64%
level
18%
Rostocker FC scores more
19%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Rostocker FC

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat Rostocker FC 7-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Am Rosenhag KR in Berlin.