Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2–2 Dynamo Schwerin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Schwerin

10/26/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 10Sportanlage Am Rosenhag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf56%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Schwerin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht MahlsdorfExpected goals in this matchDynamo Schwerin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.35

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

2.17

Dynamo Schwerin

1.35

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 61% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 61 away

2.03

creates per match

1.36

1.35

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

2.03

Dynamo Schwerin

1.36

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf

1.35

Dynamo Schwerin

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

Dynamo Schwerin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw

76%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or Dynamo Schwerin

79%

Draw or Dynamo Schwerin

44%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+

34%

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals

64%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals

36%

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals

74%

Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals

39%

Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)

70%

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Dynamo Schwerin away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.36 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more

56%

level

21%

Dynamo Schwerin scores more

24%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff