Eintracht Hohkeppel 3–0 Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Eintracht Hohkeppel

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

3/12/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel73%

×Draw15%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht HohkeppelExpected goals in this matchViktoria Arnoldsweiler

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.19

Eintracht Hohkeppel

2.98

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.19

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 150% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 36 away

3.38

creates per match

1.36

1.02

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel

3.38

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.36

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.02

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw

87%

Eintracht Hohkeppel or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

85%

Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

27%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+

53%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals

95%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals

79%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals

56%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

70%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

33%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)

85%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.98

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more

73%

level

15%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

13%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff