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Eintracht Hohkeppel vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
FT
1 – 1
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
11/10/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel77%
×Draw14%
Union Schafhausen10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.00
Union Schafhausen
0.99

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 203% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.38
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.02
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw
90%
Eintracht Hohkeppel or Union Schafhausen
86%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
23%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
57%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
95%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
79%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
56%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
63%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
26%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
89%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.00

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
77%
level
14%
Union Schafhausen scores more
10%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Hohkeppel vs Union Schafhausen

Eintracht Hohkeppel and Union Schafhausen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Hohkeppel Kunstrasen in Lindlar.