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Eintracht Hohkeppel vs TuS BW Königsdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
9/10/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel67%
×Draw17%
TuS BW Königsdorf16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.65
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.25

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 112% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.38
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.48

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.02
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.92

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par
TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw
84%
Eintracht Hohkeppel or TuS BW Königsdorf
83%
Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf
33%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
45%
TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
93%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
74%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
48%
TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
71%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
36%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
80%
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.65

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
67%
level
17%
TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
16%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Eintracht Hohkeppel 3–1 TuS BW Königsdorf

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat TuS BW Königsdorf 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Hohkeppel Kunstrasen in Lindlar.