Eintracht Hohkeppel 4–1 Hennef 05: Result & Stats

Eintracht Hohkeppel

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Hennef 05

2/18/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 18Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel61%

×Draw18%

Hennef 0521%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht HohkeppelExpected goals in this matchHennef 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.50

Eintracht Hohkeppel

2.62

Hennef 05

1.50

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

3.38

creates per match

1.98

1.02

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel

3.38

Hennef 05

1.98

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.02

Hennef 05

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Hennef 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw

79%

Eintracht Hohkeppel or Hennef 05

82%

Draw or Hennef 05

39%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+

40%

Hennef 05 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals

93%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals

73%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals

48%

Hennef 05 1+ goals

78%

Hennef 05 2+ goals

44%

Hennef 05 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)

74%

Hennef 05 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.62

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more

61%

level

18%

Hennef 05 scores more

21%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff