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Eintracht Hohkeppel vs Bonn-Endenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
9/3/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 4Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel75%
×Draw15%
Bonn-Endenich11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.86
Bonn-Endenich
1.02

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 180% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.38
Bonn-Endenich
1.03

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.02
Bonn-Endenich
2.34

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par
Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Bonn-Endenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw
89%
Eintracht Hohkeppel or Bonn-Endenich
85%
Draw or Bonn-Endenich
25%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
54%
Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
94%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
77%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
53%
Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
64%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
27%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
87%
Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Bonn-Endenich away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.86

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.03 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
75%
level
15%
Bonn-Endenich scores more
11%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Eintracht Hohkeppel 4–1 Bonn-Endenich

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat Bonn-Endenich 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Hohkeppel Kunstrasen in Lindlar.