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Eintracht Hohkeppel vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
10/19/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel67%
×Draw17%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.69
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.26

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 113% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.38
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.02
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw
84%
Eintracht Hohkeppel or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
83%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
33%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
46%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
93%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
74%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
49%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
72%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
36%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
81%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.69

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
67%
level
17%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
16%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Eintracht Hohkeppel 6–2 BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 6-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Hohkeppel Kunstrasen in Lindlar.