Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eintracht Frankfurt W vs SL Benfica W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Eintracht Frankfurt W
Eintracht Frankfurt W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SL Benfica W
SL Benfica W
12/21/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 4Deutsche Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eintracht Frankfurt W64%
×Draw18%
SL Benfica W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Frankfurt W
2.46
SL Benfica W
1.24

Eintracht Frankfurt W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Eintracht Frankfurt W
2.50
SL Benfica W
1.48

allows per match

Eintracht Frankfurt W
1.00
SL Benfica W
2.43

finishing

Eintracht Frankfurt W+0.00on par
SL Benfica W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankfurt W ↓

SL Benfica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankfurt W or draw
82%
Eintracht Frankfurt W or SL Benfica W
82%
Draw or SL Benfica W
36%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankfurt W wins by 2+
42%
SL Benfica W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankfurt W 1+ goals
91%
Eintracht Frankfurt W 2+ goals
70%
Eintracht Frankfurt W 3+ goals
44%
SL Benfica W 1+ goals
71%
SL Benfica W 2+ goals
35%
SL Benfica W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankfurt W (draw refunded)
78%
SL Benfica W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankfurt W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

SL Benfica W away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankfurt W attack 2.50 + SL Benfica W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.46

SL Benfica W attack 1.48 + Eintracht Frankfurt W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Eintracht Frankfurt W scores more
64%
level
18%
SL Benfica W scores more
18%

Eintracht Frankfurt W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Frankfurt W 1 – 1 SL Benfica W

Eintracht Frankfurt W and SL Benfica W drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt am Main.