Eintracht Frankfurt W 1–2 Real Madrid W

Eintracht Frankfurt W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Real Madrid W

N. Anyomi 45'

S. Bruun 35'

F. Angeldal 13'

9/11/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion am Brentanobad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eintracht Frankfurt W55%

×Draw21%

Real Madrid W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankfurt WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.28

Eintracht Frankfurt W

2.07

Real Madrid W

1.28

Eintracht Frankfurt W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

2.50

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Eintracht Frankfurt W

2.50

Real Madrid W

1.56

allows per match

Eintracht Frankfurt W

1.00

Real Madrid W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankfurt W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankfurt W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankfurt W or draw

77%

Eintracht Frankfurt W or Real Madrid W

79%

Draw or Real Madrid W

45%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankfurt W wins by 2+

33%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankfurt W 1+ goals

87%

Eintracht Frankfurt W 2+ goals

61%

Eintracht Frankfurt W 3+ goals

34%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

37%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankfurt W (draw refunded)

70%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankfurt W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankfurt W attack 2.50 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.07

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Eintracht Frankfurt W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eintracht Frankfurt W scores more

55%

level

21%

Real Madrid W scores more

23%

Eintracht Frankfurt W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

F. Angeldal

28'

Lisanne Gräwe

35'

S. Bruun

45'

N. Anyomi↳ N. Luhrssen

54'

Maëlle Lakrar

57'

N. Feller← A. del Castillo

75'

R. Blomqvist← L. Freigang

75'

C. Weir← S. Dabritz

75'

E. Navarro← L. Caicedo

84'

J. Teulings← L. Grawe

84'

R. Chiba← E. Memeti

85'

H. Bennison← F. Angeldal

85'

90+2'

90+6'

90+5'

Statistics

EintrachtReal

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0